[guided]The goal is to isolate exactly where equality can fail in Rauch comparison. Since $J$ never vanishes on $(0,t_0]$, we can separate its size from its direction:
\begin{align*}
J(t)=f(t)E(t),\qquad f(t)=|J(t)|_g,\qquad |E(t)|_g=1.
\end{align*}
The field $E$ records the direction of $J$, while $f$ records its length.
We now compute the scalar equation satisfied by $f$. First, $g(E,E)=1$, so differentiating along $\gamma$ gives
\begin{align*}
0=\frac{d}{dt}g(E,E)=2g(D_tE,E),
\end{align*}
hence $g(D_tE,E)=0$. Differentiating this identity once more gives
\begin{align*}
0=\frac{d}{dt}g(D_tE,E)=g(D_t^2E,E)+|D_tE|_g^2,
\end{align*}
so
\begin{align*}
g(D_t^2E,E)=-|D_tE|_g^2.
\end{align*}
Using $J=fE$, the covariant product rule gives
\begin{align*}
D_t^2J=f''E+2f'D_tE+fD_t^2E.
\end{align*}
The Jacobi equation is
\begin{align*}
D_t^2J+R(J,\dot{\gamma})\dot{\gamma}=0.
\end{align*}
Taking the inner product with $E$ gives
\begin{align*}
0
&=g(D_t^2J+R(J,\dot{\gamma})\dot{\gamma},E)\\
&=f''+2f'g(D_tE,E)+f\,g(D_t^2E,E)+f\,g(R(E,\dot{\gamma})\dot{\gamma},E)\\
&=f''-f|D_tE|_g^2+fK(t),
\end{align*}
where
\begin{align*}
K(t):=\operatorname{sec}_g(\dot{\gamma}(t),E(t)).
\end{align*}
Thus
\begin{align*}
f''+k f=f\bigl(|D_tE|_g^2+k-K(t)\bigr).
\end{align*}
This identity displays the two possible sources of strict inequality: the direction $E$ may rotate, measured by $|D_tE|_g^2$, and the radial sectional curvature may be strictly smaller than $k$, measured by $k-K(t)$. Both terms are nonnegative because the curvature hypothesis says $K(t)\leq k$.[/guided]