[step:Prove impossibility below the boundary by second moments and truncation]
Let $L_d=\frac{dP_{\Pi_{d,+}}}{dP_0}$ be the Radon-Nikodym likelihood ratio. Conditional on a support $S\subset\{1,\dots,d\}$ with $|S|=s_d$, define the support-conditional likelihood ratio $L_S:\mathbb{R}^d\to(0,\infty)$ as the map sending $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$ to
\begin{align*}
L_S(x)=\exp\left(a_d\sum_{i\in S}x_i-\frac{s_da_d^2}{2}\right).
\end{align*}
Then $L_d=\mathbb{E}_{S_d}[L_{S_d}(X)]$ under $P_0$.
[claim:]
If $r<\rho^*(\beta)$, then $\|P_{\Pi_{d,+}}-P_0\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\to0$. In particular, $P_{\Pi_{d,+}}$ is contiguous to $P_0$.
[/claim]
[proof]
First suppose $1/2<\beta\le3/4$ and $r<\beta-1/2$. Let $S_d$ and $T_d$ be independent uniform subsets of cardinality $s_d$, and define the overlap [random variable](/page/Random%20Variable) $K_d=|S_d\cap T_d|$. The Gaussian moment-generating function gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_{0}[L_d^2]=\mathbb{E}\left[\exp(a_d^2K_d)\right].
\end{align*}
For every integer $k\ge1$, the hypergeometric overlap satisfies
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(K_d=k)\le \frac{1}{k!}\left(\frac{s_d^2}{d-s_d}\right)^k.
\end{align*}
Since $s_d/d\to0$, summing this bound gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_{0}[L_d^2]-1\le \exp\left(\frac{s_d^2}{d-s_d}(e^{a_d^2}-1)\right)-1.
\end{align*}
Here $s_d^2d^{-1}=d^{1-2\beta+o(1)}$ and $e^{a_d^2}=d^{2r}$, so the exponent is $d^{1-2\beta+2r+o(1)}\to0$. Therefore $\mathbb{E}_{0}[L_d^2]\to1$, and the [Cauchy-Schwarz inequality](/theorems/432) gives total variation convergence $\|P_{\Pi_{d,+}}-P_0\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\to0$.
Now suppose $3/4<\beta<1$ and $r<(1-\sqrt{1-\beta})^2$. Define the common-coordinate exponent $\kappa:(0,\infty)\times(0,\infty)\to[0,\infty)$ by
\begin{align*}
\kappa(q,r)=\left[2r-(2\sqrt r-\sqrt q)_+^2\right]_+.
\end{align*}
Choose $q\in(r,1)$ such that
\begin{align*}
(\sqrt q-\sqrt r)^2>1-\beta
\end{align*}
and
\begin{align*}
\kappa(q,r)<2\beta-1.
\end{align*}
We verify that such a $q$ exists. Since $r<(1-\sqrt{1-\beta})^2$, we have $\sqrt r<1-\sqrt{1-\beta}$, hence
\begin{align*}
(1-\sqrt r)^2>1-\beta.
\end{align*}
By continuity, the [first inequality](/theorems/2897) holds for all $q<1$ sufficiently close to $1$. For the [second inequality](/theorems/2136), distinguish the two cases in the definition of $\kappa$. If $2\sqrt r\le1$, then for $q$ close enough to $1$ we have $2\sqrt r-\sqrt q\le0$, so $\kappa(q,r)=2r$. In this subcase $r\le 1/4$, while $\beta>3/4$ gives $\beta-1/2>1/4$, so $2r<2\beta-1$. If $2\sqrt r>1$, then for $q$ close to $1$,
\begin{align*}
\kappa(q,r)=2r-(2\sqrt r-\sqrt q)^2 \to 2r-(2\sqrt r-1)^2.
\end{align*}
The inequality $r<(1-\sqrt{1-\beta})^2$ is equivalent, after writing $u=\sqrt r$, to
\begin{align*}
2u^2-(2u-1)^2<2\beta-1,
\end{align*}
so continuity again gives $\kappa(q,r)<2\beta-1$ for all $q<1$ sufficiently close to $1$. Set $\tau_d=\sqrt{2q\log d}$ and define the truncated likelihood ratio $\widetilde L_d:\mathbb{R}^d\to[0,\infty)$ as the map sending $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$ to
\begin{align*}
\widetilde L_d(x)=\mathbb{E}_{S_d}\left[L_{S_d}(x)\mathbb{1}_{\{\max_{i\in S_d}x_i\le \tau_d\}}\right].
\end{align*}
Let $(\Omega_Z,\mathcal{F}_Z,\mathbb{P}_Z)$ be an auxiliary probability space supporting a real-valued random variable $Z:(\Omega_Z,\mathcal{F}_Z)\to(\mathbb{R},\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}))$ with law $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$. We use the Gaussian tail estimate in the following fixed-exponent forms: for every fixed $u>0$,
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}_Z(Z>\sqrt{2u\log d})=d^{-u+o(1)}
\end{align*}
and, by symmetry,
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}_Z(Z<-\sqrt{2u\log d})=d^{-u+o(1)}.
\end{align*}
The same estimate applies after replacing $u$ by any fixed positive expression in the chosen constants $q$ and $r$. Under the mixture prior, each active coordinate has distribution $\mathcal{N}(a_d,1)$. Here $q>r$, so $\tau_d-a_d=\sqrt{2\log d}(\sqrt q-\sqrt r)$ is a positive threshold. By the union bound over the $s_d$ active coordinates,
\begin{align*}
P_{\Pi_{d,+}}\left(\max_{i\in S_d}X_i>\tau_d\right)\le s_d\,\mathbb{P}_Z\left(Z>\tau_d-a_d\right).
\end{align*}
The Gaussian tail estimate then gives
\begin{align*}
s_d\,\mathbb{P}_Z\left(Z>\tau_d-a_d\right)=d^{1-\beta-(\sqrt q-\sqrt r)^2+o(1)}\to0.
\end{align*}
Since $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d$ is exactly the mixture probability of the truncation event, this proves $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d\to1$.
It remains to prove $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\to1$. Fix supports $S,T\subset\{1,\dots,d\}$ with $|S|=|T|=s_d$ and write $K=|S\cap T|$. Coordinates in $S\triangle T$ contribute factors at most $1$, because
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0\left[e^{a_dX_i-a_d^2/2}\mathbb{1}_{\{X_i\le\tau_d\}}\right]\le1.
\end{align*}
For a common coordinate $i\in S\cap T$, completing the square in the one-dimensional standard normal density gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0\left[e^{2a_dX_i-a_d^2}\mathbb{1}_{\{X_i\le\tau_d\}}\right]=e^{a_d^2}\mathbb{P}_Z\left(Z\le\tau_d-2a_d\right).
\end{align*}
If $2\sqrt r\le\sqrt q$, then $\tau_d-2a_d\ge0$ and the probability is at most $1$, giving the exponent $2r$. If $2\sqrt r>\sqrt q$, then $\tau_d-2a_d=-\sqrt{2\log d}(2\sqrt r-\sqrt q)$ and the left-tail form of the same Gaussian estimate gives exponent $2r-(2\sqrt r-\sqrt q)^2$. Combining the two cases with the convention $[u]_+=\max\{u,0\}$ gives
\begin{align*}
e^{a_d^2}\mathbb{P}_Z\left(Z\le\tau_d-2a_d\right)\le d^{\kappa(q,r)+o(1)},
\end{align*}
where the $o(1)$ is uniform for the fixed chosen value of $q$. Hence
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0\left[L_S(X)L_T(X)\mathbb{1}_{\{\max_{i\in S}X_i\le\tau_d\}}\mathbb{1}_{\{\max_{i\in T}X_i\le\tau_d\}}\right]
\le d^{K\kappa(q,r)+o(K)}.
\end{align*}
Averaging over independent uniform supports and using the same hypergeometric bound as above yields
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\le 1+\sum_{k=1}^{s_d}\frac{1}{k!}\left(\frac{s_d^2}{d-s_d}d^{\kappa(q,r)+o(1)}\right)^k.
\end{align*}
The exponential series bound gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\le \exp\left(d^{1-2\beta+\kappa(q,r)+o(1)}\right).
\end{align*}
Because $\kappa(q,r)<2\beta-1$, the exponent tends to $0$, so $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\to1$.
The truncated second-moment criterion used here is the following elementary implication: if $\widetilde L_d\le L_d$, $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d\to1$, and $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\to1$, then $\|P_{\Pi_{d,+}}-P_0\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\to0$. Indeed, by the likelihood-ratio formula and the definition of total variation,
\begin{align*}
2\|P_{\Pi_{d,+}}-P_0\|_{\mathrm{TV}}=\mathbb{E}_0|L_d-1|.
\end{align*}
Since $\widetilde L_d\le L_d$ and $\mathbb{E}_0 L_d=1$, the triangle inequality gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0|L_d-1|\le \mathbb{E}_0|\widetilde L_d-1|+\mathbb{E}_0[L_d-\widetilde L_d]=\mathbb{E}_0|\widetilde L_d-1|+1-\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d.
\end{align*}
Applying the [Cauchy-Schwarz inequality](/theorems/432) to $\widetilde L_d-1$ gives
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}_0|\widetilde L_d-1|\le \left(\mathbb{E}_0(\widetilde L_d-1)^2\right)^{1/2}\to0,
\end{align*}
because $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d\to1$ and $\mathbb{E}_0\widetilde L_d^2\to1$. Hence $\|P_{\Pi_{d,+}}-P_0\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\to0$, and contiguity follows.
[/proof]
[/step]