[guided]The goal of this step is to show that the change in the Chern-Weil form is already an exterior derivative at the infinitesimal level. Since $P_0$ is $k$-linear and symmetric, the ordinary product rule gives one term for each curvature slot:
\begin{align*}
\frac{d}{dt}P_0(F_t,\dots,F_t)=\sum_{j=1}^{k}P_0(F_t,\dots,F_t,\frac{dF_t}{dt},F_t,\dots,F_t).
\end{align*}
Every $F_t$ is a $2$-form, so moving $\frac{dF_t}{dt}$ past the other curvature entries introduces no sign. Symmetry of $P_0$ then makes all $k$ summands equal. Using the curvature variation identity $\frac{dF_t}{dt}=d_{A_t}a$, we obtain
\begin{align*}
\frac{d}{dt}P_0(F_t,\dots,F_t)=kP_0(d_{A_t}a,F_t,\dots,F_t).
\end{align*}
Now we explain why this expression is an exterior derivative. The ordinary exterior derivative of $P_0(a,F_t,\dots,F_t)$ can be rewritten using the covariant exterior derivative $d_{A_t}$ because $P_0$ is infinitesimally $\operatorname{Ad}$-invariant. This is exactly the cancellation expressed by the infinitesimal $\operatorname{Ad}$-invariance identity [citetheorem:9759]. Applying the graded Leibniz rule gives
\begin{align*}
dP_0(a,F_t,\dots,F_t)=P_0(d_{A_t}a,F_t,\dots,F_t)+\sum_{j=2}^{k}P_0(a,F_t,\dots,d_{A_t}F_t,\dots,F_t).
\end{align*}
The principal Bianchi identity says
\begin{align*}
d_{A_t}F_t=0.
\end{align*}
The full graded Leibniz rule attaches signs to the summands in which $d_{A_t}$ lands on a curvature slot. Since each such summand contains $d_{A_t}F_t$, every one of those signed terms is zero. Thus every summand in the displayed sum vanishes, leaving
\begin{align*}
dP_0(a,F_t,\dots,F_t)=P_0(d_{A_t}a,F_t,\dots,F_t).
\end{align*}
Substituting this into the differentiated Chern-Weil expression gives
\begin{align*}
\frac{d}{dt}P_0(F_t,\dots,F_t)=d\bigl(kP_0(a,F_t,\dots,F_t)\bigr).
\end{align*}
This is the infinitesimal Chern-Weil variation formula [citetheorem:9790] in this affine-path situation.[/guided]